Next United Kingdom general election
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The United Kingdom General Election of 2015 will be the election to the 56th Parliament of the United Kingdom. The terms of the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011 mandate that the election will be held on 7 May 2015, unless Parliament itself orders an earlier date.
In the general election, voting will take place in all parliamentary constituencies of the United Kingdom to elect Members of Parliament (MPs) to seats in the House of Commons, the lower house of the Parliament.
This will be the 55th general election for the United Kingdom since 1801 (earlier elections took place for parliaments in Great Britain and Ireland), though the resultant Parliament will be the 56th, as the first Parliament came about after the co-option of members from the Parliament of Great Britain and the Parliament of Ireland.
- 1 Electoral system and related details
- 2 Date of the election
- 3 MPs standing down
- 4 Political parties
- 5 Likely or potential target seats
- 6 Television debates
- 7 Opinion polling
- 8 Footnotes
- 9 See also
- 10 References
- 11 External links
Although the government initially planned the number of parliamentary seats to be reduced from 650 to 600, through the Sixth Periodic Review of Westminster constituencies under the Parliamentary Voting System and Constituencies Act 2011, this change was dropped during the Bill's passage through Parliament. The next boundary review is now set to take place in 2018 meaning that the next general election must be contested using the same constituencies and boundaries as in 2010.
In addition, the Act mandated a referendum in 2011 on changing from the current 'first past the post' system system to an Alternative Vote system for elections to the Commons. The Conservative–Liberal Democrat Coalition Agreement committed the coalition government to such a referendum.2 The referendum was held in May 2011 and resulted in the retention of the existing voting system.
Before the previous general election the Liberal Democrats had pledged to change the voting system, and the Labour Party pledged to have a referendum about any such change.3 The Conservatives, however, promised to keep the first past the post system, but to reduce the number of constituencies by 10%. Liberal Democrat plans were to reduce the number of MPs to 500 elected using a proportional system.45
Each parliamentary constituency of the United Kingdom elects one MP to the House of Commons using the 'first past the post' system. If one party were to obtain a majority of seats, then that party would be entitled to form the Government. If the election results in no single party having a majority, then there is a hung parliament. In this case, the options for forming the Government are either a coalition government or a minority government.
If Scotland votes to leave the United Kingdom in the independence referendum on 18 September 2014, it is expected that a 2015 General Election would still include Scotland, but the status and role of MPs elected in Scotland would be unclear.6 There are 59 Scottish MPs, so if the election does not take place in Scotland, or if the Scottish MPs do not take their seats, the number of seats would reduce from 650 to 591.
An election is called following the dissolution of the Parliament of the United Kingdom. The power to dissolve Parliament has been a Royal Prerogative, exercised by the Queen on the advice of the Prime Minister. The Sovereign has not refused a request for dissolution since the beginning of the 20th century;citation needed the guidelines under which this might theoretically occur are known as the Lascelles Principles after the King's private secretary who set them out. As a result, incumbent Prime Ministers have often chosen to call a general election at a time when they believed they enjoyed a temporary tactical advantage.
Under the provisions of the Septennial Act 1715, as amended by the Parliament Act 1911, an election had to be announced on or before the fifth anniversary of the beginning of the previous parliament, barring exceptional circumstances. Since the enactment of the 1715 Act, Parliament has never been allowed to expire. The previous general election, held on 6 May 2010, elected MPs to the 55th Parliament which began on 18 May 2010; thus this Parliament would expire on 17 May 2015. Since the last day that a proclamation summoning a new Parliament could be issued is this day of expiration, the election timetable dictated that the latest possible date for the election was 11 June 2015.7
Occasionally, a constituency is forced to delay its polling day. In each of the two preceding general elections, one constituency delayed its poll due to the death of a candidate.8
Prior to the 2010 general election, the Labour Party and the Liberal Democrats pledged to introduce fixed-term elections.3 As part of the Conservative – Liberal Democrat coalition agreement, the Cameron ministry agreed to support legislation for fixed-term Parliaments, with the date of the next general election being 7 May 2015.9 This would have coincided with elections for the Scottish Parliament, National Assembly for Wales and Northern Ireland Assembly, which are held on a four-year, fixed-term basis. In response to cross-party criticism of this, Nick Clegg offered each devolved body the right to vary their length of tenure by a year in either direction. Therefore, the next elections to the Scottish Parliament and National Assembly for Wales will take place in 2016.
The Act removed the Royal Prerogative to dissolve Parliament. As a result, a Prime Minister no longer has the power to advise the monarch to call an early election. The Bill originally only permitted early dissolution if Parliament voted for one by a supermajority of 55%. A government could still lose a vote of no confidence by a majority of over just over 50%, requiring it to resign. Later, the Government amended the Bill to increase the required supermajority to two-thirds, as applies to the Scottish Parliament and the Welsh Assembly. When doing so, Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg clarified that Parliament would be dissolved if no new government could be formed within 14 days of a no-confidence vote.10 The Bill was enacted in this amended form.
SNP MP Angus Robertson has suggested that politicians in the remainder of the UK should consider delaying the 2015 election by a year if Scotland votes for independence on 18 September 2014. Robertson argues that holding an election during the independence negotiations would be a diversion.11
- James Arbuthnot (North East Hampshire), announced 6 June 201112
- Brian Binley (Northampton South), announced 22 July 201313
- Aidan Burley (Cannock Chase), announced 5 February 201414
- Jonathan Evans (Cardiff North), announced 17 January 2013 15
- Lorraine Fullbrook (South Ribble), announced 14 September 2013 16
- Charles Hendry (Wealden), announced 1 March 201317
- Jessica Lee (Erewash), announced 20 January 201418
- Sir Peter Luff (Mid Worcestershire), announced 5 September 201219
- Richard Ottaway (Croydon South), announced 28 May 201220
- Sir Jim Paice (South East Cambridgeshire), announced 8 March 2013 21
- Laura Sandys (South Thanet) - announced 25 November 201322
- Sir John Stanley (Tonbridge and Malling), announced 23 March 201223
- Sir Peter Tapsell (Louth and Horncastle) - announced 21 March 201424
- Tim Yeo (South Suffolk) - announced 3 February 201425 (deselected)
- Sir George Young (North West Hampshire) - announced 29 November 201326
- Bob Ainsworth (Coventry North East), announced 7 December 2012.27
- Hazel Blears (Salford and Eccles), announced 20 February 2014.28
- Martin Caton (Gower), announced 11 March 2012.29
- Ann Clwyd (Cynon Valley) - announced 3 February 201430
- John Denham (Southampton Itchen), announced 7 October 201131
- Frank Doran (Aberdeen North), announced 19 October 201332
- Hywel Francis (Aberavon) - announced 22 November 201333
- David Heyes (Ashton-under-Lyne), announced 1 March 201434
- Glenda Jackson (Hampstead and Kilburn), announced 23 June 201135
- Siân James (Swansea East) (announced 25 February 2014)36
- Dame Tessa Jowell (Dulwich and West Norwood), announced 21 November 201337
- Anne McGuire (Stirling) announced 14 January 201438
- Andrew Miller (Ellesmere Port and Neston), announced 10 December 201339
- Austin Mitchell (Great Grimsby), announced 16 April 201440
- George Mudie (Leeds East), announced 4 October 201341
- Meg Munn (Sheffield Heeley). announced 25 January 201442
- Dawn Primarolo (Bristol South), announced 10 November 201143
- Nick Raynsford (Greenwich and Woolwich), announced 22 March 201344
- Lindsay Roy (Glenrothes), announced 6 November 201345
- Dame Joan Ruddock (Lewisham Deptford), announced 12 January 201346
- Jack Straw (Blackburn), announced 25 October 2013 47
- Joan Walley (Stoke-on-Trent North), announced 15 November 2013 48
- Mike Wood (Batley and Spen), announced 28 February 201449
- Shaun Woodward (St Helens South and Whiston), announced 7 November 201350
- Sir Alan Beith (Berwick-upon-Tweed), announced 7 August 201351
- Annette Brooke (Mid Dorset and North Poole), announced 5 March 201352
- Sir Malcolm Bruce (Gordon), announced 9 October 201353
- Sir Menzies Campbell (North East Fife), announced 9 October 201354
- Don Foster (Bath), announced 8 January 2014 55
- David Heath (Somerton and Frome), announced 11 October 201356
- Sir Andrew Stunell (Hazel Grove), announced on 29 September 201357
- Sarah Teather (Brent Central), announced 7 September 201358
- Eric Joyce (Falkirk), announced 2 March 2012 (elected as Labour)60
- Patrick Mercer (Newark), announced 31 May 2013, (elected as Conservative)6162
As of 17 September 2010[update], the Electoral Commission's Register of Political Parties includes 392 different political parties registered in Great Britain,63 and 43 in Northern Ireland.64 In addition, candidates who do not belong to a registered party can use "independent" or no label at all.
The Sixth Periodic Review of Westminster constituencies has been postponed until 2018, under the terms of the Electoral Registration and Administration Act 2013.65666768 which means the next election will be held without new boundaries being agreed. It will use the same boundaries as the previous election (2010).
In January 2013, Labour published its list of 106 target seats for the next election.69
Listed below are some of the top target seats for those parties which won seats at the 2005 or 2010 general elections, ranked by the percentage swing required. These may not be the seats where parties choose to target their resources.
|SNP targets||Swing required||Plaid Cymru targets||Swing required|
|1||Ochil & Perthshire South (LAB)||5.14%||Ynys Môn (LAB)||3.55%|
|Green Party targets||Swing required||Respect targets||Swing required|
|1||Norwich South (LD)||7.20%||Birmingham Hall Green (LAB)||3.9%|
|Sinn Féin targets||Swing required||SDLP targets||Swing required||DUP targets||Swing required||Alliance targets||Swing required|
|1||Belfast North (DUP)||3.01%||Newry and Armagh (SF)||9.3%||Belfast East (A)||2.22%||Belfast South (SDLP)||15.00%|
The first series of televised leaders debates in the United Kingdom were held in the previous election. Comments from senior politicians such as Prime Minister David Cameron have made it clear that they intend to hold another series of televised debates in the run up to the 2015 election, although they will likely take on a different format, as Cameron felt that they dominated the campaign. It has been proposed that the debates could start as early as 2014, presumably after the parliamentary summer recess as not to have an impact on the elections to the European Parliament.73 It has also been suggested that the debates could still take place in 2015 before the election campaign begins over the longer period of January, February and March.74
There is media speculation from individuals such as Michael Crick of Channel 4 News as to who may be included in the debates. He suggested that if UKIP's political fortunes were to continue to improve, and they do not receive sufficient coverage, they could make a legal case against broadcasters that under-represent the party, if the leaders of the Conservative Party, Labour Party and Liberal Democrats are included.747576 Prime Minister David Cameron has dismissed the call for UKIP's participation.77 The Leader of the Opposition Ed Miliband said in January 2013 that the composition of each debate was a matter for the media organisations.78
David Cameron has suggested that the televised debates should take place before the campaign itself, as he felt that the 2010 debates overshadowed the rest of the campaign; he was, however, still positive towards them taking place.79
The chart shows the relative state of the parties from 13 May 2010 to the date the next election is held, with each line's colour corresponding to a political party: blue for the Conservatives, red for Labour, yellow for the Liberal Democrats and purple for the UKIP. Each dot represents a party's results in opinion polls, the lines are then created by an eight-data-point moving average.
- As compared to the 2010 General Election result, not the 2011 by-election result
- Electoral Calculus, prediction of future general election results using mathematical modelling
- European Parliament election, 2014 (United Kingdom)
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- Boundary Commission for England
- Boundary Commission for Northern Ireland
- Boundary Commission for Scotland
- Boundary Commission for Wales ((in Welsh))