Oregon gubernatorial election, 2010

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Oregon gubernatorial election, 2010
Oregon
2006 ←
November 2, 2010
→ 2014

  John Kitzhaber.jpg Chrisdudley.jpg
Nominee John Kitzhaber Chris Dudley
Party Democratic Republican
Alliance Independent
Popular vote 716,525 694,287
Percentage 49.29 47.77

Oregon Gubernatorial Election Results by County, 2010.svg

County results

Governor before election

Ted Kulongoski
Democratic

Elected Governor

John Kitzhaber
Democratic

The Oregon gubernatorial election of 2010 was held on Tuesday, November 2, 2010 to elect the Governor of Oregon, who will serve a four-year term to begin on January 10, 2011. The incumbent governor, Democrat Ted Kulongoski, was ineligible to run due to term limits barring him from being elected to more than two consecutive terms.

The Democratic candidate John Kitzhaber, who had previously served two terms as governor from 1995 to 2003, was elected to a third term, earning a narrow victory over Republican candidate Chris Dudley and two minor party candidates. Kitzhaber's election marked the first time in Oregon's history that a person has been elected to a third term as governor.

Almost every opinion poll throughout the election season showed a statistical tie between the two. State Republicans saw this election as the best chance to win the governorship since the last Republican governor, Victor Atiyeh, was re-elected in 1982. Once polls closed on election day, Dudley had led in early vote counts, but Kitzhaber's wide margins in Multnomah and Lane counties eventually erased Dudley's lead.1

Oregon first used its new cross nomination system, a form of fusion voting, in the 2010 general elections. In this system, a candidate for partisan public office can be nominated by up to three political parties.2 Kitzhaber was nominated by the Independent Party of Oregon in addition to the Democratic Party.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Polling

Poll source Date administered John Kitzhaber Bill Bradbury Undecided
Davis, Hibbetts & Midghall May 8–10, 2010 53% 23% 22%
Survey USA May 7–9, 2010 59% 25% 12%

Results

Oregon Democratic gubernatorial primary results3
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic John Kitzhaber 242,545 64.78%
Democratic Bill Bradbury 110,298 29.46%
Democratic Roger Obrist 16,057 4.29%
Democratic Write-ins 5,504 1.47%
Totals 374,404 100.00%

Republican primary

Candidates

Polling

Poll source Date administered Chris Dudley Allen Alley John Lim Bill Sizemore Undecided
Davis, Hibbetts & Midghall May 8–10, 2010 33% 23% 8% 6% 24%
Survey USA May 7–9, 2010 42% 24% 8% 8% 14%

Results

Oregon Republican gubernatorial primary results3
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Chris Dudley 122,855 39.11%
Republican Allen Alley 99,753 31.76%
Republican John Lim 47,339 15.07%
Republican Bill Sizemore 23,522 7.49%
Republican William Ames Curtright 12,497 3.98%
Republican Rex O. Watkins 3,060 0.97%
Republican Write-ins 2,001 0.64%
Republican Clark Colvin 1,206 0.38%
Republican Darren Karr 1,127 0.36%
Republican Bob Forthan 727 0.23%
Totals 314,087 100.00%

Independent Party of Oregon primary

Oregon first used its new cross nomination system, a form of fusion voting, in the 2010 general elections. In this system, a candidate for partisan public office can be nominated by up to three political parties.2 As a result, the Independent Party of Oregon did not file a candidate and instead chose to hold a month-long online primary in July.4 In doing so, it became the first political party in the United States to conduct a binding statewide primary election entirely over the Internet,5 and it was the largest nominating process ever held by an Oregon minor political party.6 Republican Chris Dudley did not apply for the Independent Party nomination by the required date, so he was not on the ballot, but he could be written in.4

Candidates

Results

Independent Party of Oregon gubernatorial primary results7
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic John Kitzhaber 850 38.39%
Independent Richard Esterman 438 19.78%
Independent Write-ins 314 14.18%
Independent None of the above 312 14.09%
Progressive Jerry Wilson 300 13.55%
Totals 2,214 100.00%

General election

Candidates

Campaign

Following the primaries, the two leading candidates, Dudley and Kitzhaber, campaigned separately throughout the state for the summer. Despite attempts by both campaigns to arrange a debate, the candidates could only agree on a single debate on September 30.8 Through the end of September, the Dudley campaign had raised $5.6 million, more than twice as much as the Kitzhaber campaign.9

Throughout the last few months of the campaign, opinion polls showed a tight race with the lead apparently changing frequently. Due to the closeness of the race, President Barack Obama, for whom Oregon voted by a 16-percent margin in 2008, stumped for Kitzhaber; then headlined a rally at the Oregon Convention Center in Portland on October 20, 2010.

Newspaper endorsements

Newspaper Endorsement
The Oregonian (Portland) John Kitzhaber10
Willamette Week (Portland) John Kitzhaber11
Portland Tribune John Kitzhaber12
The Register-Guard (Eugene) John Kitzhaber13
Statesman Journal (Salem) Chris Dudley14
Mail Tribune (Medford) John Kitzhaber15
The Bulletin (Bend) Chris Dudley16
East Oregonian (Pendleton) John Kitzhaber17
The Lake Oswego Review John Kitzhaber18
The News-Review (Roseburg) John Kitzhaber19
The Outlook (Gresham) John Kitzhaber20
The Daily Astorian John Kitzhaber21
Corvallis Gazette-Times John Kitzhaber22
News-Register (McMinnville) Chris Dudley23
The Sandy Post John Kitzhaber24
Beaverton Valley Times John Kitzhaber25
West Linn Tidings John Kitzhaber26

Polling

Poll source Date administered Margin of Error John Kitzhaber (D) Chris Dudley (R) Other Candidate Undecided
Davis & Hibbitts October 30–31, 2010 ± 3.1% 46% 43%
Survey USA October 23–28, 2010 ± 4.2% 48% 41% 2% 8%
Rasmussen Reports October 25, 2010 ± 4.0% 46% 49% 3% 3%
Hibbitts October 24–25, 2010 ± 4.4% 42% 45% 2% 12%
Elway Research October 18–19, 2010 ± 4.4% 45% 44% 3% 5%
Public Policy Polling October 16–17, 2010 ± 2.8% 48% 47% 5%
Survey USA October 12–14, 2010 ± 3.9% 46% 45% 4% 5%
Rasmussen Reports October 10, 2010 ± 4.0% 48% 46% 3% 4%
Survey USA September 12–14, 2010 ± 4.2% 43% 49% 5% 3%
Riley Research August 31 – September 9, 2010 ± 5.0% 40% 39% 5% 16%
Rasmussen Reports September 8, 2010 ± 4.0% 44% 49% 2% 5%
Rasmussen Reports August 22, 2010 ± 4.0% 44% 45% 3% 8%
Grove Insight August 18–21, 2010 ± 4.0% 44% 35% 4% 14%
Survey USA July 25–27, 2010 ± 4.2% 44% 46% 7% 4%
Rasmussen Reports July 26, 2010 ± 4.0% 44% 47% 5% 4%
Magellan Strategies June 28, 2010 ± 3.2% 40% 41% 10% 9%
Davis, Hibbits and Midghall June 21, 2010 unk 41% 41% 6% 12%
Rasmussen Reports June 17, 2010 ± 4.5% 45% 47% 4% 4%
Survey USA June 7–9, 2010 ± 4.2% 40% 47% 6% 7%
Rasmussen Reports May 20, 2010 ± 4.5% 44% 45% 4% 6%
Rasmussen Reports April 26, 2010 ± 4.0% 41% 41% 4% 4%
Moore Insight February 20–21, 2010 ± 4.0% 45% 33% 21%
Rasmussen Reports February 17, 2010 ± 4.5% 42% 36% 7% 15%

Results

Kitzhaber gives his victory speech after successfully winning the Oregon governorship
Oregon gubernatorial election, 201027
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic John Kitzhaber 716,525 49.29% -1.43%
Republican Chris Dudley 694,287 47.76% +5.01%
Constitution Greg Kord 20,475 1.41% -2.23%
Libertarian Wes Wagner 19,048 1.31% +0.09%
Write-ins 3,213 0.22%
Majority 22,238 1.53% -6.45%
Turnout 1,453,548
Democratic hold Swing

See also

References

  1. ^ "The Oregonian's prediction: John Kitzhaber wins Oregon governor race". The Oregonian. November 3, 2010. Retrieved November 3, 2010. 
  2. ^ a b Mapes, Jeff (July 8, 2009). "Kulongoski will sign fusion voting bill". The Oregonian. Retrieved October 12, 2010. 
  3. ^ a b http://www.sos.state.or.us/elections/doc/history/may182010/results/gv.pdf
  4. ^ a b IPO primary FAQ
  5. ^ "E-voting not ready yet". The Oregonian. Retrieved August 11, 2010. 
  6. ^ "Oregon Independent Party Releases Results of its Private Primary". Ballot Access News. Retrieved August 11, 2010. 
  7. ^ [1]
  8. ^ Esteve, Harry (October 1, 2010). "John Kitzhaber and Chris Dudley spar in Oregon gubernatorial campaign's only debate". The Oregonian. Retrieved October 1, 2010. 
  9. ^ Steves, David (September 29, 2010). "Dudley doubles donor dollars". The Register-Guard. Retrieved October 1, 2010. 
  10. ^ "Our endorsement: Kitzhaber for governor". The Oregonian (Portland). October 10, 2010. Retrieved November 6, 2010. 
  11. ^ "Save Our State!". Willamette Week (Portland). October 13, 2010. Retrieved November 7, 2010. 
  12. ^ "Let Kitzhaber steer state into future". Portland Tribune (Pamplin Media Group). October 14, 2010. Retrieved November 7, 2010. 
  13. ^ "Kitzhaber for governor: Oregon needs experience, not a fresh face". The Register-Guard (Eugene). October 17, 2010. Retrieved November 6, 2010. 
  14. ^ "Chris Dudley worth taking a risk on: Candidate more likely to bring jobs, unity to state". Statesman Journal (Salem). October 10, 2010. Retrieved November 6, 2010. 
  15. ^ "Governor: John Kitzhaber: Oregon's problems are too complex for a newcomer; the state needs his experience". Mail Tribune (Medford). October 17, 2010. Retrieved November 6, 2010. 
  16. ^ "Pick Dudley for governor". The Bulletin (Bend). October 15, 2010. Retrieved November 6, 2010. 
  17. ^ "Kitzhaber brings a clear vision for Oregon’s future". East Oregonian (Pendleton). October 17, 2010. Retrieved November 6, 2010. 
  18. ^ "It’s Kitzhaber by a nose in state gubernatorial contest". The Lake Oswego Review. October 21, 2010. Retrieved November 6, 2010. 
  19. ^ "Kitzhaber's experience more valuable than fresh face". The News-Review (Roseburg). October 24, 2010. Retrieved November 6, 2010. 
  20. ^ "Kitzhaber must use experience to bring change". The Outlook (Gresham). October 16, 2010. Retrieved November 6, 2010. 
  21. ^ "John Kitzhaber for governor". The Daily Astorian. October 7, 2010. Retrieved November 6, 2010. 
  22. ^ "Kitzhaber best suited to lead Oregon". Corvallis Gazette-Times. October 21, 2010. Retrieved November 6, 2010. 
  23. ^ "Endorsement summary: November 2010 general election". News-Register (McMinnville). October 30, 2010. Retrieved November 6, 2010. 
  24. ^ "Kitzhaber must use experience to bring change". The Sandy Post (Pamplin Media Group). October 20, 2010. Retrieved April 20, 2013. 
  25. ^ "Kitzhaber earns slim nod thanks to his experience". Beaverton Valley Times (Pamplin Media Group). October 14, 2010. Retrieved April 20, 2013. 
  26. ^ "Let Kitzhaber steer Oregon". West Linn Tidings (Pamplin Media Group). October 21, 2010. Retrieved April 20, 2013. 
  27. ^ http://oregonvotes.org/doc/history/nov22010/results/gv.pdff

External links

Official campaign websites







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