United States Senate election in New York, 2010

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United States Senate election in New York, 2010
New York
2004 ←
November 2, 2010
→ 2016

  Charles Schumer official portrait.jpg
Nominee Chuck Schumer Jay Townsend
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 3,047,775 1,480,337
Percentage 66.4% 33.0%

NYSen10Counties.png

County results

U.S. Senator before election

Chuck Schumer
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Chuck Schumer
Democratic

The 2010 United States Senate election in New York took place as scheduled on November 2, 2010 along with elections to the United States Senate in other states as well as elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Chuck Schumer won re-election to a third term.1

Background

In the 2004 U.S. Senate election, Schumer had defeated Republican Assemblyman Howard Mills by a 71 to 24 percent margin. Schumer is highly popular in New York, so it was believed that any Republican contender would likely not fare well against him in 2010.2 Schumer was heavily favored to retain his seat.3

In addition to this regular election, there was also a special election to fill the Senate seat vacated by Hillary Rodham Clinton, who became the United States Secretary of State on January 21, 2009. In addition, there was the New York gubernatorial election. The existence of two other top-level statewide races, one with a vulnerable Democratic incumbent and the other an open race, respectively,4 was believed to lead major New York Republicans to gravitate towards them rather than challenge the popular Schumer.25 As it happened, however, the Republican Party had difficulty in drawing top-tier candidates to any of the three races.

Republican nomination

Convention

Candidates

  • Gary Berntsen, retired CIA officer, received the party's endorsement on the second round of balloting6
  • Martin Chicon, candidate for New York Senate in 20087 and New York Republican State Committee member from upper Manhattan.
  • George Maragos, Nassau County Comptroller 8
  • James Staudenraus, Long Island resident and 2008 state assembly candidate9
  • Jay Townsend, Republican strategist (finished second and also qualified for the primary)6

Results

Only two candidates, Bernsen and Townsend, obtained at least 25% of the vote at the New York State Republican Convention on June 1, 2010. Bernsen came in first, but still needed to win the primary in order to win the Republican nomination.

Primary

Candidates

Results

Republican primary results10
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Jay Townsend 234,440 55.41%
Republican Gary Berntsen 188,628 44.59%
Totals 423,068 100%

General election

Candidates

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
Cook Political Report Solid D11 October 12, 2010
Rothenberg Safe D12 October 8, 2010
RealClearPolitics Safe D13
Sabato's Crystal Ball Safe D14 September 30, 2010
CQ Politics Safe D15 October 12, 2010
Election Projection Solid D hold16 October 12, 2010

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Chuck
Schumer (D)
Jay
Townsend (R)
Other Unde-
cided
Siena College October 27–30, 2010 603 ± 4.0% 64% 32% 2%
Angus Reid Public Opinion October 28–29, 2010 541 ± 4.2% 61% 35% 4%
Rasmussen Reports October 19, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 59% 31% 5% 5%
Angus Reid Public Opinion October 7, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 63% 27% 6%
Survey USA September 20, 2010 1,000 ± 4.2% 54% 33% 10% 3%
Rasmussen Reports September 16, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 58% 36% 3% 4%
Siena College July 12, 2010 808 ± 3.4% 63% 26% 13%
Rasmussen Reports June 16, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 54% 33% 6% 6%
Siena College June 7–9, 2010 808 ± 3.4% 60% 26% 14%
Siena College May 17–20, 2010 808 ± 3.4% 63% 24% 13%

Fundraising

Candidate (party) Receipts Disbursements Cash on hand Debt
Chuck Schumer (D) $17,302,006 $11,824,587 $16,048,482 $0
Jay Townsend (R) $197,365 $180,693 $16,671 $105,854
Source: Federal Election Commission17

Results

General election results18
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Chuck Schumer (inc.) 2,710,735 65.4
Republican Jay Townsend 1,365,439 33.0
Green Colia Clark 39,815 1.0
Libertarian Randy Credico 25,975 0.6

References

  1. ^ Richberg, Keith B. (2008-12-02). "A Rush for Clinton's Senate Seat". The Washington Post. Retrieved 2008-12-18. 
  2. ^ a b Saltonsall, David (2009-02-01). "Sen. Chuck Schumer unlikely to see competition in 2010 reelection bid". New York Daily News. Retrieved 2009-02-02. 
  3. ^ Silver, Nate (2008-12-08). "2010 Senate Rankings, Revised and Extended". FiveThirtyEight.com. Retrieved 2009-01-24. 
  4. ^ Lovett, Kenneth (2009-03-23). "New Siena Poll finds Gov. David Paterson's approval rating at just 19%". New York: Nydailynews.com. Retrieved 2010-06-14. 
  5. ^ "Senate Races 2010". VoteFromAbroad.org. Retrieved 2008-12-18. dead link
  6. ^ a b McKenna, Chris (June 2, 2010). "Townsend trails Berntsen at state GOP convention". Times Herald-Record. 
  7. ^ "Martin Chicon NY-US Senator 2010 Republican Candidate NYC Sat 10/3/09 - AOL Video". Video.aol.co.uk. Retrieved 2010-06-14. 
  8. ^ "Nassau Comptroller Eyeing Schumer Challenge". Capitaltonight.com. 2010-04-15. Retrieved 2010-06-14. 
  9. ^ "Latest count on U.S. Senate candidates: 22 | Politics on the Hudson". Polhudson.lohudblogs.com. 2010-05-12. Retrieved 2010-06-14. 
  10. ^ "New York, Class 3 Senate Primary Results". Politico. September 14, 2010. Retrieved September 14, 2010. 
  11. ^ "Senate". Cook Political Report. Retrieved October 12, 2010. 
  12. ^ "Senate Ratings". Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved October 12, 2010. 
  13. ^ "Battle for the Senate". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved October 12, 2010. 
  14. ^ "2010 Senate Ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved October 12, 2010. 
  15. ^ "Race Ratings Chart: Senate". CQ Politics. Retrieved October 12, 2010. 
  16. ^ "The Battle for Capitol Hill - 2010 Senate". ElectionProjection.com. Retrieved October 12, 2010. 
  17. ^ "2010 House and Senate Campaign Finance for New York". fec.gov. Retrieved July 25, 2010. 
  18. ^ "New York Election Results". The New York Times. 

External links








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