United States Senate election in Ohio, 2010

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United States Senate election in Ohio, 2010
Ohio
2004 ←
November 2, 2010
→ 2016

  Rob Portman, official portrait, 112th Congress.jpg Lee Fisher.jpg
Nominee Rob Portman Lee Fisher
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 2,125,810 1,448,092
Percentage 57.3% 39.0%

Ohio Senatorial Election Results by County, 2010.svg

County results

U.S. Senator before election

George Voinovich
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Rob Portman1
Republican

The 2010 United States Senate election in Ohio was held on November 2, 2010, as one of many Ohio elections in 2010. Incumbent two-term Republican U.S. Senator George Voinovich decided to retire instead of seeking a third term.2 Republican Rob Portman won the open seat.

Democratic primary

Background

Congressman Tim Ryan, Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner, and Lieutenant Governor Lee Fisher were considered leading contenders to run against George Voinovich.3 Ohio Governor Ted Strickland urged Jennifer Brunner to run for re-election rather than run for the Senate.4 Cuyahoga County Commissioner Peter Lawson Jones and Ohio State Representative Tyrone Yates considered running, but both withdrew from consideration.56

Candidates

Campaign

On February 17, 2009, Brunner and Fisher both officially announced their candidacies for the now-open seat election, with Strickland officially endorsing Fisher.478 Ryan declined to run and endorsed Fisher in July.9

Fisher was endorsed by Governor Ted Strickland and U.S. Representatives John Boccieri, Tim Ryan, Zack Space, and Charlie Wilson.10

Polling in late 2009 and January 2010 showed Brunner to be more competitive than Fisher in a general election matchup against Portman, while Fisher and Brunner were deadlocked in Democratic primary polling.11

Charlene Renee Bradley and Traci Johnson also filed to run in the Democratic primary.12

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Jennifer Brunner Lee Fisher Other Undecided
Quinnipiac University January 29-Feb. 2, 2009 492 ± 4.4% 16% 18% 14% 53%
Quinnipiac University March 10–15, 2009 506 ± 4.4% 14% 18% 1% 46%
Quinnipiac University April 28-May 4, 2009 437 ± 4.7% 16% 20% 1% 59%
Quinnipiac University June 26-July 1, 2009 483 ± 4.5% 21% 24% 2% 51%
Research 2000 July 6–8, 2009 400 ± 5.0% 17% 22% 61%
Quinnipiac University September 10–13, 2009 421 ± 4.8% 17% 26% 2% 55%
Quinnipiac University November 5–9, 2009 394 ± 4.9% 22% 24% 1% 51%
Quinnipiac University February 16–21, 2010 604 ± 4.0% 20% 29% 2% 48%
Quinnipiac University March 25–28, 2010 978 ± 3.1% 26% 33% 1% 40%
Research 2000 April 5–7, 2010 400 ± 4.0% 26% 35% 39%
Quinnipiac University April 22–26, 2010 987 ± 3.1% 24% 41% 1% 34%
Suffolk University April 27–29, 2010 400 ± 4.9% 27% 55% 18%
Quinnipiac University April 29-May 2, 2010 980 ± 3.1% 23% 43% 1% 32%

Results

Democratic primary results13
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Lee Fisher 380,184 55.6%
Democratic Jennifer Brunner 304,022 44.4%
Totals 684,206 100%

Republican primary

Background

With rumors circulating about Voinovich's possible retirement, former Director of the Office of Management and Budget, United States Trade Representative, and Congressman Rob Portman and State Auditor Mary Taylor were considered the main contenders for the Republican nomination.14 Former Ohio Secretary of State Ken Blackwell was also considered a potential candidate, but declined in order to run for chairman of the Republican National Committee.15

Candidate

Campaign

When Voinovich made his retirement official, Portman declared his candidacy the next day.16 Thomas Ganley, a Cleveland car dealer, launched his campaign for the nomination in April, after Portman had collected support from most of the Ohio Republican establishment.17 Taylor officially declined to run in May and was announced as gubernatorial candidate John Kasich's running mate on January 12, 2010 18

Ganley was the only other declared candidate, but on February 17, 2010, he announced that he would switch races and run against Betty Sutton in Ohio's 13th congressional district instead,19 leaving Portman as the only Republican candidate. He had over $7 million in campaign funds.20

Results

Republican primary results21
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Rob Portman 657,354 100%
Totals 657,354 100%

General election

Candidates

Campaign

When the incumbent announced he would retire, Portman jumped into the race in early 2009. During the two-year time period, Portman raised over $9 million.22 Originally, the election was seen as a toss up.23 His experience as a former Bush official was considered to be a big problem for Portman. Both President Barack Obama and Vice President Joe Biden campaigned for Fisher.24

Television advertisements were very negative. Fisher attacked Portman for helping to ship jobs overseas during his entire political career, backing deals that shipped jobs overseas, and the trade deficit with China, which grew by over $41 billion.25 Portman claimed in response that most jobs were being lost to other states, not countries.26 Portman attacked Fisher for supporting Obama's stimulus and cap and trade.2728

Debates

Three debates were held in Cleveland, Columbus, and Toledo.29 The first one was in Toledo on October 5. The second one was in Cleveland on October 8, while the third was in Columbus on October 12.

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
Cook Political Report Safe R30 October 22, 2010
Electoral-vote.com Strong R31 October 21, 2010
FiveThirtyEight.com R32 October 21, 2010
Rothenberg R favored33 October 15, 2010
Swing State Project Safe Rcitation needed
RealClearPolitics Solid R34 October 22, 2010
Rasmussen Reports Solid R35 October 20, 2010
Sabato's Crystal Ball Likely R36 October 21, 2010
CQ Politics Safe R37 October 22, 2010

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Lee Fisher (D) Rob Portman (R) Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling (report) January 17–18, 2009 578 ± 4.1% 39% 41% 20%
Quinnipiac University (report) January 29-Feb. 2, 2009 1,127 ± 2.9% 42% 27% 1% 29%
Quinnipiac University (report) March 10–15, 2009 1,299 ± 2.7% 41% 33% 1% 24%
Quinnipiac University (report) April 28-May 4, 2009 1,079 ± 3.0% 42% 31% 1% 26%
Public Policy Polling (report) June 17–19, 2009 619 ± 3.9% 41% 32% 27%
Quinnipiac University (report) June 26-July 1, 2009 1,259 ± 2.8% 37% 33% 2% 26%
Research 2000 (report) July 6–8, 2009 400 ± 5.0% 42% 35% 23%
Quinnipiac University (report) September 10–13, 2009 1,074 ± 3.0% 42% 31% 1% 26%
Rasmussen Reports (report) September 23, 2009 500 ± 4.5% 40% 41% 6% 14%
Quinnipiac University (report) November 5–9, 2009 1,123 ± 2.9% 36% 39% 24%
Rasmussen Reports (report) December 7, 2009 500 ± 4.5% 36% 38% 8% 18%
Rasmussen Reports (report) January 12, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 37% 44% 4% 14%
Rasmussen Reports (report) February 5–6, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 39% 43% 5% 13%
Quinnipiac University (report) February 16–21, 2010 1,662 ± 2.4% 37% 40% 2% 21%
Rasmussen Reports (report) March 4, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 39% 44% 5% 12%
Public Policy Polling (report) March 20–21, 2010 630 ± 3.9% 36% 41% 23%
Quinnipiac (report) March 23–29, 2010 1,526 ± 2.5% 41% 37% 1% 21%
Rasmussen Reports (report) March 30, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 38% 43% 4% 14%
Research 2000 (report) April 5–7, 2010 600 ± 4.0% 43% 39% 18%
Quinnipiac Polling (report) April 21–26, 2010 1,568 ± 2.5% 40% 37% 1% 21%
Rasmussen Reports (report) May 7, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 43% 42% 4% 14%
UC/The Ohio Poll (report) May 11–20, 2010 668 ± 3.8% 47% 46% 6%
Rasmussen Reports (report) June 3, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 43% 43% 4% 10%
Quinnipiac Polling (report) June 22–27, 2010 1,107 ± 3.0% 42% 40% 1% 17%
Public Policy Polling (report) June 26–27, 2010 482 ± 4.5% 40% 38% –– 22%
Rasmussen Reports (report) June 29, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 39% 43% 4% 13%
Rasmussen Reports (report) July 19, 2010 750 ± 4.0% 39% 45% 5% 11%
Rasmussen Reports (report) August 2, 2010 750 ± 4.0% 40% 44% 5% 11%
Reuters/Ipsos (report) August 6–8, 2010 600 ± 4.0% 36% 43% 21%
Rasmussen Reports (report) August 16, 2010 750 ± 4.0% 37% 45% 5% 13%
Public Policy Polling (report) August 27–29, 2010 475 ± 4.5% 38% 45% 18%
Rasmussen Reports (report) August 30, 2010 750 ± 4.0% 39% 44% 7% 11%
The Columbus Dispatch (report) August 25-Sept. 3, 2010 1,622 ± 2.2% 37% 50% 3% 9%
Fox News/Pulse Opinion Research (report) September 11, 2010 1,000 ± 3.0% 41% 48% 3% 8%
Rasmussen Reports (report) September 13, 2010 750 ± 4.0% 41% 49% 2% 8%
CNN/Time Magazine (report) September 10–14, 2010 820 ± 3.5% 41% 52% 4% 2%
SurveyUSA (report) September 14, 2010 1000 ± 4.0% 40% 49% 7% 4%
Quinnipiac University (report) September 17, 2010 730 ± 3.6% 35% 55% 1%
Ohio Newspapers Poll/UC (report) September 24, 2010 850 ± 4.0% 40% 55% 5%
Fox News/Pulse Opinion Research (report) September 25, 2010 1,000 ± 3.0% 37% 50% 3% 11%
CBS/NY Times report) September 23–27, 2010 941 ± 3.0% 34% 45% 18%
Reuters/Ipsos report) September 23–25, 2010 440 ± 3.0% 37% 50% 13%
Rasmussen Reports (report) September 27, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 42% 51% 1% 6%
Fox News/Pulse Opinion Research (report) October 2, 2010 1,000 ± 3.0% 37% 53% 2% 8%
Quinnipiac University (report) September 29-Oct. 3, 2010 1,025 ± 3.1% 36% 55%
Angus Reid Public Opinion (report) Oct. 5-8, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 43% 52% 6%
Rasmussen Reports (report) October 11, 2010 750 ± 4.0% 34% 57% 2% 7%
University of Cincinnati (report) October 8–13, 2010 705 ± 3.7% 36% 58% 1% 6%
Quinnipiac University (report) October 12–17, 2010 1,183 ± 2.8% 34% 55% 1% 10%
University of Cincinnati (report) October 14–18, 2010 839 ± 3.3% 39% 58% 0% 3%
CNN/Time/Opinion Research (report) October 15–19, 2010 1,502 ± 2.5% 40% 55% 2% 3%
Quinnipiac University (report) October 20, 2010 686 ± 2.5% 34% 55% 2%
Wilson Research Strategies (report) October 20–21, 2010 500 ± 3.0% 38% 49% 8%
SurveyUSA (report) October 22–26, 2010 950 ± 4.0% 37% 52% 4%
Rasmussen Reports (report) October 26, 2010 750 ± 4.0% 33% 57% 3% 7%
Columbus Dispatch (report) October 20–29, 2010 1,445 ± 2.3% 40% 56% 0% 4%
Quinnipiac University (report) October 25–30, 2010 848 ± 3.4% 37% 56% 1% 8%
Angus Reid Public Opinion (report) October 27–29, 2010 460 ± 4.6% 40% 57% 3%
Public Policy Polling (report) October 28–30, 2010 1,356 ± 2.7% 39% 57% 0% 4%
University of Cincinnati (report) October 27–31, 2010 930 ± 3.2% 39% 60% 0% 1%
University of Cincinnati (report) November 1, 2010 930 ± 3.2% 39% 61% 0% 0%

Fundraising

Candidate (party) Receipts Disbursements Cash on hand Debt
Rob Portman (R) $15,998,398 $10,493,211 $5,505,186 $0
Lee Fisher (D) $6,191,361 $5,882,729 $308,631 $0
Source: Federal Election Commission38

Results

Winning the election, Portman received 57% of the votes. He received the majority of votes in 82 of 88 counties and in 15 of 18 Congressional districts, including the district of liberal U.S. Congressman Dennis Kucinich.39

United States Senate election in Ohio, 2010  40
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Rob Portman 2,125,810 57.25% -6.61%
Democratic Lee Fisher 1,448,092 39.00% +2.85%
Constitution Eric Deaton 64,017 1.72% N/A
Independent Michael Pryce 48,653 1.31% N/A
Socialist Daniel LaBotz 25,368 0.68% N/A
N/A Arthur Sullivan (write-in) 1,512 0.04% N/A
Majority 677,718 18.25%
Total votes 3,713,452 100.0%
Republican hold Swing NA

See also

References

  1. ^ Ohio Senate election results – Politics – Decision 2010 – msnbc.com
  2. ^ Dubail, Jean (January 12, 2009). "It's official: Voinovich to retire from Senate after 2010". Cleveland Plain Dealer. Retrieved November 10, 2009. 
  3. ^ Skolnick, David (January 13, 2009). "Will Ryan make a run for Senate?". The Vindicator. Retrieved November 11, 2009. 
  4. ^ a b Naymik, Mark (February 3, 2009). "Ohio Democrats brace for collision over open Senate seat". Cleveland Plain Dealer. Retrieved November 11, 2009. 
  5. ^ Koff, Stephen (February 26, 2009). "3rd Democratic candidate emerges for Voinovich's Senate seat; analyst calls it a toss-up". Cleveland Plain Dealer. Retrieved November 11, 2009. 
  6. ^ Wilkinson, H (August 25, 2009). "Yates endorses Fisher". Cincinnati Enquirer. Retrieved November 11, 2009. 
  7. ^ Naymik, Mark (February 17, 2009). "Jennifer Brunner announces candidacy for U.S. Senate". Cleveland Plain Dealer. Retrieved November 11, 2009. 
  8. ^ Naymik, Mark (February 17, 2009). "Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher joins the race for U.S. Senate seat". Cleveland Plain Dealer. Retrieved November 11, 2009. 
  9. ^ "U.S. Rep. Tim Ryan endorses Ohio Lt. Gov. Fisher for Senate seat". The Vindicator. July 27, 2009. Retrieved November 11, 2009. 
  10. ^ "Elected Officials // Endorsements // Lee Fisher for Ohio". Fisherforohio.com. Retrieved 2010-08-21. 
  11. ^ Chuck Crow, The Plain Dealer. "Real test of U.S. Senate candidate Jennifer Brunner coming soon". Cleveland.com. Retrieved 2010-08-21. 
  12. ^ "Candidates File for the May 4 State Primary". Ohio Secretary of State. February 18, 2010. Retrieved February 24, 2010. 
  13. ^ "The 2010 Results Maps". Politico.Com. Retrieved 2010-08-21. 
  14. ^ Larkin, Brent (January 9, 2009). "Voinovich in 2010? We'll see". Cleveland Plain Dealer. Retrieved November 11, 2009. 
  15. ^ "Portman says he's leaning toward Senate run". Columbus Dispatch. January 13, 2009. Retrieved November 11, 2009. 
  16. ^ Hershey, William (January 13, 2009). "Portman announces for U.S. Senate, to start statewide campaign tour". Dayton Daily News. Retrieved November 11, 2009. 
  17. ^ Wendel, Kim (April 4, 2009). "Auto dealer Ganley expected to announce run for Voinovich's Senate seat". WKYC. Retrieved November 11, 2009. 
  18. ^ "Ohio Auditor Mary Taylor won't seek re-election, instead will run for lieutenant governor.". cleveland.com. Retrieved 2010-08-21. 
  19. ^ Gonzales, Nathan (February 17, 2010). "Ganley Switching Races in Ohio, Will Challenge Sutton". CQ Politics. Retrieved February 17, 2010. 
  20. ^ Eric Kleefeld (2010-02-17). "Tom Ganley: February 2010 | TPMDC". Tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com. Retrieved 2010-08-21. 
  21. ^ My Results
  22. ^ Race Detail Display Page : Roll Call
  23. ^ CQ Politics | Poll Tracker - Ohio Senate: Portman Even With Fisher, Leads Brunner
  24. ^ Prospects in Ohio Looking Better for Senate GOP : Roll Call
  25. ^ PolitiFact | Lee Fisher hammers Rob Portman on record in Bush administration
  26. ^ Portman targets Fisher with claim that most jobs Ohio lost went to other states: PolitiFact Ohio | cleveland.com
  27. ^ Democrats Use Portman Ad As Opening To Attack - The Eye (CQ Politics)
  28. ^ RealClearPolitics - Portman Hits Fisher on Jobs in New Ad
  29. ^ U.S. Senate candidates Rob Portman and Lee Fisher agree to debates in Cleveland, Columbus and Toledo | cleveland.com
  30. ^ "Senate". Cook Political Report. Retrieved October 22, 2010. 
  31. ^ "Electoral-vote.com". Retrieved October 22, 2010. 
  32. ^ "FiveThirtyEight Forecasts: Ohio Senate". New York Times. Retrieved October 22, 2010. 
  33. ^ "Senate Ratings". Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved October 22, 2010. 
  34. ^ "Battle for the Senate". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved October 22, 2010. 
  35. ^ "Election 2010: Senate Balance Of Power". Rasmussen Reports. Retrieved October 22, 2010. 
  36. ^ "2010 Senate Ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved October 22, 2010. 
  37. ^ "Race Ratings Chart: Senate". CQ Politics. Retrieved October 22, 2010. 
  38. ^ "2010 House and Senate Campaign Finance for Ohio". fec.gov. Retrieved July 21, 2010. 
  39. ^ http://www.rollcall.com/issues/56_97/-204148-1.html
  40. ^ "State of Ohio 2010 General Election November 2, 2010 Unofficial Results". Ohio Secretary of State. November 2, 2010. Retrieved November 6, 2010. 

External links

Official campaign websites







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