United States Senate elections, 2016
|Senate Seats up for election:
Elections for the United States Senate will be held on November 8, 2016, with 34 of the 100 seats in the Senate being contested in regular elections whose winners will serve six-year terms from January 3, 2017 until January 3, 2023. Additionally, special elections may be held to fill vacancies that occur during the 114th United States Congress. Currently, Democrats are expected to have 10 seats up for election, and Republicans are expected to have 24 seats up for election.
- 1 Composition
- 2 Early predictions
- 3 Summary
- 4 Race summary
- 5 Complete list of races
- 5.1 Alabama
- 5.2 Alaska
- 5.3 Arizona
- 5.4 Arkansas
- 5.5 California
- 5.6 Colorado
- 5.7 Connecticut
- 5.8 Florida
- 5.9 Georgia
- 5.10 Hawaii
- 5.11 Idaho
- 5.12 Illinois
- 5.13 Indiana
- 5.14 Iowa
- 5.15 Kansas
- 5.16 Kentucky
- 5.17 Louisiana
- 5.18 Maryland
- 5.19 Missouri
- 5.20 Nevada
- 5.21 New Hampshire
- 5.22 New York
- 5.23 North Carolina
- 5.24 North Dakota
- 5.25 Ohio
- 5.26 Oklahoma
- 5.27 Oregon
- 5.28 Pennsylvania
- 5.29 South Carolina
- 5.30 South Dakota
- 5.31 Utah
- 5.32 Vermont
- 5.33 Washington
- 5.34 Wisconsin
- 6 References
The composition of the Senate going into the 2016 election will depend on the results of the 2012 and 2014 elections. Among the senators up for election in 2016, there will be 10 Democrats and 24 Republicans.
There may be some additional changes if senators die or resign. If senators in other classes die or resign between 2010 and 2016, there may be additional special elections between the beginning of the 112th Congress (on January 3, 2011), and the 2012 election. The dates between which the death or resignation of a senator would lead a special election during this time period vary from state to state.
Seats that are predicted to be competitive include Republican-held seats in Florida, Illinois, Iowa, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, as well as Democratic-held seats in Colorado and Nevada.12 Other seats may also become competitive.
There are 34 Senators up for election this year as members of the class 3 Senators. Among the senators up for election in 2016, there are 10 Democrats and 24 Republicans.
There may be some changes if senators die or resign. If senators in other classes die or resign between 2014 and 2016, there may be additional special elections. The dates between which the death or resignation of a senator would lead a special election during this time period vary from state to state.
Shading indicates party with largest share of that line.
|Last election (2014)||TBD||TBD||2||100|
|Before this election||TBD||TBD||2||100|
Thirty-four seats are up for election in 2016:
- One Democrat is seeking re-election.
- Nine Democrats may seek re-election.
- One Republican is retiring.
- Five Republicans are seeking re-election.
- Eighteen Republicans may seek re-election.
Five-term Senator Richard Shelby was re-elected with 65.3% of the vote in 2010. He will be 82 years old in 2016. He served in the Senate as a Democrat until switching parties in 1994. Shelby intends to seek re-election to a sixth term.3
Two-term Senator Lisa Murkowski was appointed in 2002 and elected to a full term in 2004. She was defeated in the Republican primary in 2010 by Joe Miller. She later ran as a write-in candidate in the 2010 general election and was re-elected to a second full term with 39% of the vote. She is one of only two senators to be elected via write-in votes, the other being Strom Thurmond. She will be 59 years old in 2016.
Five-term Senator and 2008 Republican Presidential nominee John McCain was re-elected with 59.3% of the vote in 2010. He will be 80 years old in 2016. McCain has hinted that he may retire.12 He further said he is considering running for reelection.13
Potential Republican candidates include Martha McSally14 and Grant Woods, as well as Congressmen Trent Franks, Matt Salmon, and John Shadegg.15 Potential Democratic candidates include Gabby Giffords,16 former Governor Janet Napolitano, Mark Kelly, Congresswoman Krysten Sinema, Phoenix Mayor Phil Gordon, and former Surgeon General Richard Carmona.15
Four-term Senator Barbara Boxer was re-elected with 52.1% of the vote in 2010. She will be 75 years old in 2016.
One-term Senator Michael Bennet was appointed in 2009 and elected to a full term with 47.7% of the vote in 2010. He will be 51 years old in 2016.
One-term Senator Richard Blumenthal was elected with 55.1% of the vote in 2010. He will be 70 years old in 2016.
One-term Senator Marco Rubio was elected in a three-way race with 48.9% of the vote in 2010. He will be 45 years old in 2016. Rubio may run for President in 2016.171819 If he does become the Republican nominee, state law prohibits him from simultaneously running for re-election.20 Former Republican Congressman Allen West may challenge Rubio in the primary21 and has said that he will definitely run for the Senate if Rubio runs for President.22 Potential Democratic candidates include Jacksonville Mayor Alvin Brown, Congressman Ted Deutch, DNC Chairwoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz and 2010 gubernatorial nominee Alex Sink.23
Polling conducted by Public Policy Polling in September 2013 found Rubio leading Sink 45% to 42% and leading Wasserman Schultz 46% to 43%. West trailed Sink 44% to 38% and Wasserman Schultz 44% to 40%.24
Two-term Senator Johnny Isakson was re-elected with 58.1% of the vote in 2010. He will be 71 years old in 2016. Atlanta Mayor Kasim Reed has ruled out a run.25 Potential Democratic candidates include State Representatives Scott Holcomb, Stacey Abrams, and James Beverly, and State Senators Doug Stoner and Jason Carter.26
Nine-term Senator and President pro tempore Daniel Inouye was re-elected with 75% of the vote in 2010. He continuously represented Hawaii in Congress after it achieved statehood in 1959 and would have been 92 years old in 2016. He intended to run for re-election to a tenth term27 but he died on December 17, 2012.28 Hawaii Governor Neil Abercrombie appointed Lieutenant Governor Brian Schatz in his place. There will be a special election in November 2014 to fill the rest of the term. Schatz is running for election and various Democratic and Republican candidates have been speculated.
Three-term Senator Mike Crapo was re-elected with 71.1% of the vote in 2010. He will be 65 years old in 2016.
One-term Senator Mark Kirk was elected with 48.4% of the vote in 2010. He will be 57 years old in 2016. First Lady Michelle Obama could potentially be a candidate, as could Lieutenant Governor of Illinois Sheila Simon and Illinois Attorney General Lisa Madigan.29 Other potential Democratic candidates include U.S. Representatives Tammy Duckworth, Janice Schakowsky, Bill Foster, and Mike Quigley. If Kirk retires, potential Republican candidates include U.S. Representatives Adam Kinzinger and Aaron Schock.30
Three-term non-consecutive, one-term consecutive Senator Dan Coats was elected with 54.6% of the vote in 2010. He previously represented Indiana in the Senate between 1989 and 1999. He will be 73 years old in 2016. Coats intends to seek re-election.5 Potential candidates include former Representative and 2010 Democratic Senate candidate Brad Ellsworth, former Senator Evan Bayh, South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg, and former Evansville Mayor Jonathan Weinzapfel.33
Six-term Senator Chuck Grassley was re-elected with 64.5% of the vote in 2010. He will be 83 years old in 2016. Grassley plans on running for re-election.34 Former Governor Tom Vilsack is a potential Democratic candidate. Representatives Steve King and Tom Latham could be Republican candidates if Grassley changes his mind and retires, while Congressman Dave Loebsack or ex-governor Chet Culver could run for the Democrats.35
One-term Senator Jerry Moran was elected with 70.3% of the vote in 2010. He will be 62 years old in 2016.
One-term Senator Rand Paul was elected with 55.7% of the vote in 2010. He will be 53 years old in 2016. Paul has already filed for re-election,7 although he has also publicly expressed interest in running for president in 2016.36 If he does become the Republican nominee, state law prohibits him from simultaneously running for re-election.20 Potential Republican candidates include Kentucky Agriculture Commissioner James Comer and former Secretary of State Trey Grayson, along with Representatives Brett Guthrie and Ed Whitfield. Attorney General Jack Conway and Auditor Adam Edelen are potential Democratic candidates.37
Two-term Senator David Vitter was re-elected with 56.6% of the vote in 2010. He will be 55 years old in 2016. Vitter may run for Governor of Louisiana. Potential Republican candidates include Representatives Jeff Landry, Charles Boustany, and John Fleming, while potential Democratic candidates include state legislators John Bel Edwards, Katrina Jackson, and Karen Carter Peterson.38
Five-term Senator Barbara Mikulski was re-elected with 61.8% of the vote in 2010. She will be 80 years old in 2016. She is the longest-serving female senator and the longest-serving woman in the history of the U.S. Congress.
Five-term Senator and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid was re-elected with 50.2% of the vote in 2010. He will be 76 years old in 2016. He will seek re-election.8 Republican Brian Sandoval, the Governor of Nevada, has been mentioned as a possible opponent.41 2010 Republican nominee Sharron Angle may run again.42 Wayne Allyn Root, the Libertarian Party nominee for Vice President of the United States in 2008, has re-joined the Republican Party and is considering running for the seat.4344
One-term Senator Kelly Ayotte was elected with 60.2% of the vote in 2010. She will be 48 years old in 2016. Ayotte is considered a potential Republican Vice Presidential nominee in 2016.45 Governor Maggie Hassan is a potential Democratic candidate,45 as are former Governor John Lynch and Congresswomen Ann McLane Kuster and Carol Shea-Porter. Ayotte may also face a primary challenge from the Tea Party.45
Three-term Senator Chuck Schumer was re-elected with 66% of the vote in 2010. He will be 65 years old in 2016.
Two-term Senator Richard Burr was re-elected with 55% of the vote in 2010. He will be 60 years old in 2016. Anthony Foxx, the United States Secretary of Transportation and former Mayor of Charlotte, is a potential Democratic candidate.46
One-term Senator John Hoeven was elected with 76.2% of the vote in 2010. He will be 59 years old in 2016.
One-term Senator Rob Portman was elected with 57.3% of the vote in 2010. He will be 60 years old in 2016. Democratic state Representative Bob Hagan has filed papers to run. Other potential Democratic candidates include former governor Ted Strickland, Congresswoman Betty Sutton, and former Ohio Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner.47
Two-term Senator Tom Coburn was re-elected with 70.64% of the vote in 2010. He will be 68 years old in 2016. Coburn, who supports congressional term limits, will not seek re-election to a third term.9
Three-term Senator Ron Wyden was re-elected with 57.3% of the vote in 2010. He will be 67 years old in 2016.
One-term Senator Pat Toomey was elected with 51% of the vote in 2010. He will be 54 years old in 2016. Former Congressman Joe Sestak, the 2010 Democratic nominee, has formed an exploratory committee.10 Polling in June 2013 by Quinnipiac showed Toomey leading Sestak 42%-37%.48
Two-term Senator Jim DeMint was re-elected with 61.48% of the vote in 2010. He resigned at the start of 2013, and Representative Tim Scott of South Carolina's 1st district was appointed to replace him by Governor Haley.49 A special election will be held in 2014 for the remaining two years of the term; the 2016 election will then be for a full six-year term. Republican Congressman Mick Mulvaney is a potential candidate.50
Two-term Senator John Thune ran unopposed and was re-elected with 100% in 2010. He will be 55 years old in 2016.
One-term Senator Mike Lee was elected with 61.6% of the vote in 2010. He will be 45 years old in 2016. Former Republican state party chair Thomas Wright, former State Senator Dan Liljenquist and Mitt Romney's son Josh Romney may challenge him in the primary and Democratic Congressman Jim Matheson may run against him in the general election.5152
Seven-term Senator Patrick Leahy was re-elected with 64.4% of the vote in 2010. He will be 76 years old in 2016.
Four-term Senator Patty Murray was re-elected with 52.15% of the vote in 2010. She will be 66 years old in 2016.
One-term Senator Ron Johnson defeated three-term Senator Russ Feingold with 51.9% of the vote in 2010. He will be 61 years old in 2016. Polling by Public Policy Polling in February 2013 showed Johnson losing a re-match to Feingold, 52% to 42%.53
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- Trujillo, Mario (September 13, 2013). "McCain hints at retirement in 2016 - The Hill's Blog Briefing Room". Thehill.com. Retrieved October 22, 2013.
- Bradner, Eric. "Coats preparing for re-election in 2016 » Evansville Courier & Press". Courierpress.com. Retrieved October 22, 2013.
- Jennifer Epstein (April 19, 2011). "Rand Paul files for reelection race five years away". Politico.
- Meredith Shiner (August 7, 2012). "Nevada: Harry Reid to Retire … in 2016?". Roll Call.
- Shiner, Meredith (December 26, 2010). "Coburn 'no way, no how' seeking reelection". Politico.
- Weiner, Rachel. "Joe Sestak planning Senate campaign". Washingtonpost.com. Retrieved October 22, 2013.
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- Blake, Aaron. "McCain considering seeking reelection in 2016". Washingtonpost.com. Retrieved October 22, 2013.
- "McSally says she’s being recruited for Ariz. governor, senate runs". AZCentral.com. April 23, 2013. Retrieved April 25, 2013.
- Nowicki, Dan (February 16, 2013). "Is this Sen. McCain’s last term?". The Arizona Republic. Retrieved September 21, 2013.
- Livingston, Abby (February 27, 2013). "Farm Team: Arizona Raises Drama, Candidates". Roll Call. Retrieved August 14, 2013.
- Rubin, Jennifer (August 5, 2013) "Prepping for 2016: Marco Rubio", The Washington Post. Retrieved August 5, 2013.
- Feldmann, Linda (September 4, 2013) "2016 contenders: Why Syria is tough for GOP's Marco Rubio", Christian Science Monitor. Retrieved September 7, 2013.
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- Alex Leary, Times Washington Bureau Chief View all Articles (September 26, 2013). "Allen West: If Rubio runs for president 'of course' I would run for Senate | Tampa Bay Times". Tampabay.com. Retrieved October 22, 2013.
- Call, Roll (April 24, 2013). "Chaos and Opportunity Ahead for Florida Democrats | Farm Team : Roll Call Politics". Rollcall.com. Retrieved October 22, 2013.
- Galloway, Jim (May 9, 2013). "Kasim Reed rules out a 2016 run for U.S. Senate". The Atlanta Journal Constitution.
- Cahn, Emily. "Republicans Line Up for Open Seats in Georgia | Farm Team". Roll Call. Retrieved August 14, 2013.
- Manu Raju and John Bresnahan (April 12, 2011). "Sen. Daniel Inouye goes silent on big Hawaiian race". Politico.
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- Cahn, Emily (June 12, 2013). "Illinois Options Depend on Chicago Turnover Farm Team". Roll Call. Retrieved August 14, 2013.
- Livingston, Abby (June 19, 2013). "Ambitious Hoosiers Wait for Future Statewide Races | Farm Team". Roll Call. Retrieved September 20, 2013.
- Livingston, Abby (September 20, 2013). "Grassley Planning to Run Again in 2016". Roll Call. Retrieved September 20, 2013.
- Cahn, Emily (June 26, 2013). "Hawkeye Politicians Finally See Some Opportunity in 2014 | Farm Team". Roll Call. Retrieved August 14, 2013.
- Tam, Ruth (August 13, 2013). "Rand Paul confirms he’s ‘considering’ a run for the presidency in 2016". The Washington Post. Retrieved August 14, 2013.
- Livingston, Abby (July 17, 2013). "Grimes Is Key to Kentucky Democrats' Posterity | Farm Team". Roll Call. Retrieved August 14, 2013.
- Lowe, Matthew (July 24, 2013). "Landrieu Race Pivotal to Political Futures in Bayou State | Farm Team". Roll Call. Retrieved August 14, 2013.
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