United States Senate elections, 2016

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United States Senate elections, 2016
United States
2014 ←
November 8, 2016
→ 2018
Class 3 (34 of the 100) seats in the United States Senate
51 seats needed for a majority

2016 Senate election map.svg

Senate Seats up for election:
  Democratic incumbent
  Republican incumbent
  Retiring Republican
  Undetermined incumbent
  No election

Majority Leader before election

TBD

Elected Majority Leader

TBD

Elections for the United States Senate will be held on November 8, 2016, with 34 of the 100 seats in the Senate being contested in regular elections whose winners will serve six-year terms from January 3, 2017 until January 3, 2023. Additionally, special elections may be held to fill vacancies that occur during the 114th United States Congress. Currently, Democrats are expected to have 10 seats up for election, and Republicans are expected to have 24 seats up for election.

The 2016 Presidential election, House elections, and many state and local elections will also be held on this date.

Composition

The composition of the Senate going into the 2016 election will depend on the result of the 2014 elections. Among the senators up for election in 2016, there will be 10 Democrats, 23 Republicans, and 1 undetermined seat in South Carolina.

There may be some additional changes if senators die or resign. If senators in other classes die or resign between 2010 and 2016, there may be additional special elections between the beginning of the 112th Congress (on January 3, 2011), and the 2012 election. The dates between which the death or resignation of a senator would lead a special election during this time period vary from state to state.

Early predictions

Seats that are predicted to be competitive include Republican-held seats in Florida, Illinois, Iowa, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, as well as Democratic-held seats in Colorado and Nevada.123 Other seats may also become competitive.

     Democratic-favored seat      Competitive Democratic-held seat
     Republican-favored seat      Competitive Republican-held seat

Summary

There are 34 Senators up for election this year as members of the class 3 Senators. Among the senators up for election in 2016, there are 10 Democrats and 24 Republicans.

There may be some changes if senators die or resign. If senators in other classes die or resign between 2014 and 2016, there may be additional special elections. The dates between which the death or resignation of a senator would lead a special election during this time period vary from state to state.

Shading indicates party with largest share of that line.

Parties Total
Democratic Republican Independent
Last election (2014) TBD TBD 2 100
Before this election TBD TBD 2 100
Not up TBD TBD TBD TBD
Class 1 (20122018) 23 8 2 33
Class 2 (20142020) TBD TBD TBD TBD
Up 9-11 23-25 34
General: Class 3 9-11 23-25 34
Incumbent retiring 0 1 1
Incumbent running 1 5 6
Intent undeclared 8-10 17-19 27

Race summary

State
(linked to
summaries below)
Incumbent Most recent election results 2016 intent Candidates
Senator Party Electoral
history
Alabama Richard Shelby Republican 1986
1992
1998
2004
2010
Richard Shelby (R) 65.3%
William G. Barnes (D) 34.7%
Undecided4 [Data unknown/missing. You can help!
Alaska Lisa Murkowski Republican 2002 (appointed)
2004
2010
Lisa Murkowski (R) (write-in) 39.3%
Joe Miller (R) 35.3%
Scott McAdams (D) 24.2%
Undecided or undeclared [Data unknown/missing. You can help!
Arizona John McCain Republican 1986
1992
1998
2004
2010
John McCain (R) 59.2%
Rodney Glassman (D) 34.7%
Undecided5 [Data unknown/missing. You can help!
Arkansas John Boozman Republican 2010 John Boozman (R) 58.0%
Blanche Lincoln (D) 36.9%
Undecided or undeclared [Data unknown/missing. You can help!
California Barbara Boxer Democratic 1992
1998
2004
2010
Barbara Boxer (D) 52.1%
Carly Fiorina (R) 42.5%
Undecided or undeclared [Data unknown/missing. You can help!
Colorado Michael Bennet Democratic 2009 (Appointed)
2010
Michael Bennet (D) 47.7%
Ken Buck (R) 46.5%
Undecided or undeclared [Data unknown/missing. You can help!
Connecticut Richard Blumenthal Democratic 2010 Richard Blumenthal (D) 55.1%
Linda McMahon (R) 43.3%
Undecided or undeclared [Data unknown/missing. You can help!
Florida Marco Rubio Republican 2010 Marco Rubio (R) 48.9%
Charlie Crist (I) 29.7%
Kendrick Meek (D) 20.1%
Undecided or undeclared [Data unknown/missing. You can help!
Georgia Johnny Isakson Republican 2004
2010
Johnny Isakson (R) 58.1%
Michael Thurmond (D) 39.2%
Undecided or undeclared [Data unknown/missing. You can help!
Hawaii To be determined in the 2014 special election Daniel Inouye (D) 74.8%
Campbell Cavasso (R) 21.6%
[Data unknown/missing. You can help! [Data unknown/missing. You can help!
Idaho Mike Crapo Republican 1998
2004
2010
Mike Crapo (R) 71.1%
Tom Sullivan (D) 25.0%
Undecided or undeclared [Data unknown/missing. You can help!
Illinois Mark Kirk Republican 2010 Mark Kirk (R) 48.2%
Alexi Giannoulias (D) 46.3%
Running6 Mark Kirk
Indiana Dan Coats Republican 2010 Dan Coats (R) 56.4%
Brad Ellsworth (D) 38.1%
Rebecca Sink-Burris (L) 5.4%
Running7 Dan Coats
Iowa Chuck Grassley Republican 1980
1986
1992
1998
2004
2010
Chuck Grassley (R) 64.5%
Roxanne Conlin (D) 33.2%
Running8 Chuck Grassley
Kansas Jerry Moran Republican 2010 Jerry Moran (R) 70.3%
Lisa Johnston (D) 26.2%
Undecided or undeclared [Data unknown/missing. You can help!
Kentucky Rand Paul Republican 2010 Rand Paul (R) 55.8%
Jack Conway (D) 44.2%
Running9 Rand Paul
Louisiana David Vitter Republican 2004
2010
David Vitter (R) 56.6%
Charles Melancon (D) 37.7%
Undecided or undeclared [Data unknown/missing. You can help!
Maryland Barbara Mikulski Democratic 1986
1992
1998
2004
2010
Barbara Mikulski (D) 61.8%
Eric Wargotz (R) 36.3%
Undecided or undeclared [Data unknown/missing. You can help!
Missouri Roy Blunt Republican 2010 Roy Blunt (R) 54.3%
Robin Carnahan (D) 40.6%
Undecided or undeclared [Data unknown/missing. You can help!
Nevada Harry Reid Democratic 1986
1992
1998
2004
2010
Harry Reid (D) 50.2%
Sharron Angle (R) 44.6%
Running10 Harry Reid
New Hampshire Kelly Ayotte Republican 2010 Kelly Ayotte (R) 60.2%
Paul Hodes (D) 36.7%
Undecided or undeclared [Data unknown/missing. You can help!
New York Chuck Schumer Democratic 1998
2004
2010
Chuck Schumer (D) 65.4%
Jay Townsend (R) 33.0%
Undecided or undeclared [Data unknown/missing. You can help!
North Carolina Richard Burr Republican 2004
2010
Richard Burr (R) 55.0%
Elaine Marshall (D) 42.9%
Undecided or undeclared [Data unknown/missing. You can help!
North Dakota John Hoeven Republican 2010 John Hoeven (R) 76.2%
Tracy Potter (D) 22.2%
Undecided or undeclared [Data unknown/missing. You can help!
Ohio Rob Portman Republican 2010 Rob Portman (R) 57.3%
Lee Fisher (D) 39.0%
Undecided or undeclared [Data unknown/missing. You can help!
Oklahoma To be determined in the 2014 special election Tom Coburn (R) 70.5%
Jim Rogers (D) 26.1%
[Data unknown/missing. You can help! [Data unknown/missing. You can help!
Oregon Ron Wyden Democratic 1996 (special)
1998
2004
2010
Ron Wyden (D) 57.2%
Jim Huffman (R) 39.4%
Undecided or undeclared [Data unknown/missing. You can help!
Pennsylvania Pat Toomey Republican 2010 Pat Toomey (R) 51.01%
Joe Sestak (D) 48.99%
Undecided or undeclared Joe Sestak11
South Carolina To be determined in the 2014 special election Jim DeMint (R) 62.4%
Alvin Greene (D) 28.2%
Tom Clements (G) 9.2%
[Data unknown/missing. You can help! [Data unknown/missing. You can help!
South Dakota John Thune Republican 2004
2010
John Thune (R) Unopposed Undecided or undeclared [Data unknown/missing. You can help!
Utah Mike Lee Republican 2010 Mike Lee (R) 61.6%
Sam Granato (D) 32.8%
Scott Bradley (C) 5.7%
Undecided or undeclared [Data unknown/missing. You can help!
Vermont Patrick Leahy Democratic 1974
1980
1986
1992
1998
2004
2010
Patrick Leahy (D) 64.4%
Len Britton (R) 30.9%
Undecided or undeclared [Data unknown/missing. You can help!
Washington Patty Murray Democratic 1992
1998
2004
2010
Patty Murray (D) 52.4%
Dino Rossi (R) 47.6%
Running12 Patty Murray
Wisconsin Ron Johnson Republican 2010 Ron Johnson (R) 51.9%
Russ Feingold (D) 47.0%
Running13 Ron Johnson


State
(linked to
summaries below)
Senator Party Electoral
history
Most recent election results 2016 intent Candidates
Incumbent

Complete list of races

Thirty-four seats are up for election in 2016:

  • Two Democrats are seeking re-election.
  • Eight Democrats may seek re-election.
  • One Republican is retiring.
  • Five Republicans are seeking re-election.
  • Eighteen Republicans may seek re-election.

Alabama

Five-term Senator Richard Shelby was re-elected with 65.3% of the vote in 2010. He will be 82 years old in 2016. He served in the Senate as a Democrat until switching parties in 1994. As of February 2014, Shelby is undecided on whether or not he will seek a sixth term.14

Alaska

Two-term Senator Lisa Murkowski was appointed in 2002 and elected to a full term in 2004. She was defeated in the Republican primary in 2010 by Joe Miller. She later ran as a write-in candidate in the 2010 general election and was re-elected to a second full term with 39% of the vote. She is one of only two senators to be elected via write-in votes, the other being Strom Thurmond. She will be 59 years old in 2016. Potential Democratic candidate include state Senator Dennis Egan, state Representative Andy Josephson, state Senator Bill Wielechowski, state Senator Hollis French, and state Senate Minority Leader Johnny Ellis.15

Arizona

Five-term Senator and 2008 Republican Presidential nominee John McCain was re-elected with 59.3% of the vote in 2010. He will be 80 years old in 2016. McCain has hinted that he may retire.16 He further said he is considering running for reelection.17

Potential Republican candidates include Governor Jan Brewer,18 Martha McSally,19 and former Arizona Attorney General Grant Woods, as well as Congressmen Trent Franks, Matt Salmon, and John Shadegg.20 Potential Democratic candidates include former Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords,21 former Governor Janet Napolitano, astronaut Mark Kelly, Congresswoman Kyrsten Sinema, Phoenix Mayor Phil Gordon and former Surgeon General Richard Carmona.20

A Public Policy Polling survey from February and March 2014 found McCain trailing Carmona 35% to 41% and Giffords 35% to 42%, but leading Napolitano 44% to 36%.22

Arkansas

One-term Senator John Boozman defeated two-term Senator Blanche Lincoln with 58.0% of the vote in 2010. He will be 65 years old in 2016. He could possibly retire after being taken to the hospital in 2014 for an emergency heart surgery.23 Potential Democratic candidates include former Lieutenant Governor Bill Halter and Attorney General Dustin McDaniel.24 Governor Mike Beebe is also a potential candidate.

California

Four-term Senator Barbara Boxer was re-elected with 52.1% of the vote in 2010. She will be 75 years old in 2016.

Facebook COO Sheryl Sandberg was speculated to run against Boxer25 but she will not do so.26

Colorado

One-term Senator Michael Bennet was appointed in 2009 and elected to a full term with 47.7% of the vote in 2010. He will be 51 years old in 2016.

Connecticut

One-term Senator Richard Blumenthal was elected with 55.1% of the vote in 2010. He will be 70 years old in 2016.

Florida

One-term Senator Marco Rubio was elected in a three-way race with 48.9% of the vote in 2010. He will be 45 years old in 2016. Rubio may run for President in 2016.272829 Rubio stated in April 2014 that he would not run for both senate and president in 2016, as Florida law prohibits a candidate from appearing twice on a ballot, but did not rule out running for either office.30 Former Republican Congressman Allen West may challenge Rubio in the primary31 and has said that he will definitely run for the Senate if Rubio runs for President.32 Potential Democratic candidates include Jacksonville Mayor Alvin Brown, Congressman Ted Deutch, DNC Chairwoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz and 2010 gubernatorial nominee Alex Sink.33

Polling conducted by Public Policy Polling in September 2013 found Rubio leading Sink 45% to 42% and leading Wasserman Schultz 46% to 43%. West trailed Sink 44% to 38% and Wasserman Schultz 44% to 40%.34

Georgia

Two-term Senator Johnny Isakson was re-elected with 58.1% of the vote in 2010. He will be 71 years old in 2016. Atlanta Mayor Kasim Reed has ruled out a run.35 Potential Democratic candidates include State Representatives Scott Holcomb, Stacey Abrams, and James Beverly, and State Senators Doug Stoner and Jason Carter.36

Hawaii

Nine-term Senator and President pro tempore Daniel Inouye was re-elected with 75% of the vote in 2010. He continuously represented Hawaii in Congress after it achieved statehood in 1959 and would have been 92 years old in 2016. He intended to run for re-election to a tenth term37 but he died on December 17, 2012.38 Hawaii Governor Neil Abercrombie appointed Lieutenant Governor Brian Schatz in his place. Schatz is facing Congresswoman Colleen Hanabusa in the Democratic primary for the November 2014 special election.

Idaho

Three-term Senator Mike Crapo was re-elected with 71.1% of the vote in 2010. He will be 65 years old in 2016.

Illinois

One-term Senator Mark Kirk was elected with 48.4% of the vote in 2010. He will be 57 years old in 2016. First Lady Michelle Obama could potentially be a candidate, as could Lieutenant Governor of Illinois Sheila Simon and Illinois Attorney General Lisa Madigan.39 Other potential Democratic candidates include U.S. Representatives Tammy Duckworth, Janice Schakowsky, Bill Foster, and Mike Quigley.40 If Kirk retires, potential Republican candidates include U.S. Representatives Adam Kinzinger and Aaron Schock.41

Polling conducted by Public Policy Polling in November 2012 showed Michelle Obama beating Kirk 50% to 41%42 and polling they conducted in November 2013 showed Kirk tied with Madigan 41% to 41%.43 A Gravis Marketing poll conducted in March 2014 showed Kirk beating Michelle Obama 47% to 42%.44

Indiana

Three-term non-consecutive, one-term consecutive Senator Dan Coats was elected with 54.6% of the vote in 2010. He previously represented Indiana in the Senate between 1989 and 1999. He will be 73 years old in 2016. Coats intends to seek re-election.7 Potential candidates include former Representative and 2010 Democratic Senate candidate Brad Ellsworth, former Senator Evan Bayh, South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg, and former Evansville Mayor Jonathan Weinzapfel.45

Iowa

Six-term Senator Chuck Grassley was re-elected with 64.5% of the vote in 2010. He will be 83 years old in 2016. Grassley plans on running for re-election.46 Former Governor Tom Vilsack is a potential Democratic candidate. Representatives Steve King and Tom Latham could be Republican candidates if Grassley changes his mind and retires, while Congressman Dave Loebsack or ex-governor Chet Culver could run for the Democrats.47 Democrat Bob Krause, a former State Representative and a candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2010, has declared his candidacy.48

A Public Policy Polling survey taken in February 2014 found Grassley leading Vilsack 48% to 41%.49

Kansas

One-term Senator Jerry Moran was elected with 70.3% of the vote in 2010. He will be 62 years old in 2016.

Kentucky

One-term Senator Rand Paul was elected with 55.7% of the vote in 2010. He will be 53 years old in 2016. Paul has already filed for re-election,9 although he has also publicly expressed interest in running for president in 2016.50 If he does become the Republican nominee, state law prohibits him from simultaneously running for re-election.51 In March 2014, Kentucky's Republican-controlled senate passed a bill that would allow Paul to run for both offices, but the Democratic-controlled house may not pass the bill.30 Potential Republican candidates include Kentucky Agriculture Commissioner James Comer and former Secretary of State Trey Grayson, along with Representatives Brett Guthrie and Ed Whitfield. Attorney General Jack Conway and Auditor Adam Edelen are potential Democratic candidates.52

Louisiana

Two-term Senator David Vitter was re-elected with 56.6% of the vote in 2010. He will be 55 years old in 2016. Vitter is running for Governor of Louisiana in 2015.53 Potential Republican candidates include Representatives Jeff Landry, Charles Boustany, and John Fleming, while potential Democratic candidates include state legislators John Bel Edwards, Katrina Jackson, and Karen Carter Peterson.54

Maryland

Five-term Senator Barbara Mikulski was re-elected with 61.8% of the vote in 2010. She will be 80 years old in 2016. She is the longest-serving female senator and the longest-serving woman in the history of the U.S. Congress.

Missouri

One-term Senator Roy Blunt was elected with 54.3% of the vote in 2010. He will be 66 years old in 2016. Governor Jay Nixon will not run.55 State Treasurer Clint Zweifel is a potential Democratic candidate.56

Nevada

Five-term Senator and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid was re-elected with 50.2% of the vote in 2010. He will be 76 years old in 2016. He will seek re-election.10 Republican Brian Sandoval, the Governor of Nevada, has been mentioned as a possible opponent.57 2010 Republican nominee Sharron Angle may run again.58 Wayne Allyn Root, the Libertarian Party nominee for Vice President of the United States in 2008, has re-joined the Republican Party and is considering running for the seat.5960

New Hampshire

One-term Senator Kelly Ayotte was elected with 60.2% of the vote in 2010. She will be 48 years old in 2016. Ayotte is considered a potential Republican Vice Presidential nominee in 2016.61 Governor Maggie Hassan is a potential Democratic candidate,61 as are former Governor John Lynch and Congresswomen Ann McLane Kuster and Carol Shea-Porter. Ayotte may also face a primary challenge from the Tea Party.61

New York

Three-term Senator Chuck Schumer was re-elected with 66% of the vote in 2010. He will be 65 years old in 2016.

North Carolina

Two-term Senator Richard Burr was re-elected with 55% of the vote in 2010. Burr may retire.62 He will be 60 years old in 2016. Anthony Foxx, the United States Secretary of Transportation and former Mayor of Charlotte, is a potential Democratic candidate.63 Other potential Democratic candidates include State Treasurer Janet Cowell, state Senator Josh Stein, state Representative Grier Martin, and Raleigh Mayor Nancy McFarlane. Potential Republican candidates include Congressmen Robert Pittenger, Mark Meadows, and George Holding.62

North Dakota

One-term Senator John Hoeven was elected with 76.2% of the vote in 2010. He will be 59 years old in 2016. Potential Democratic candidates include state Senator George B. Sinner, state Representative Corey Mock, and USDA State Director Jasper Schneider.64

Ohio

One-term Senator Rob Portman was elected with 57.3% of the vote in 2010. He will be 60 years old in 2016. Portman is considered a potential 2016 Vice Presidential choice.65 Democratic State Representative Bob Hagan has filed papers to run. Other potential Democratic candidates include Congresswoman Betty Sutton, former Ohio Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner, State Senator Nina Turner, State Representative Connie Pillich and U.S. Representative Tim Ryan.6665 Former Governor Ted Strickland has ruled out running, however.67 Potential Republican candidates if Portman vacates the seat include Ohio State Treasurer Josh Mandel and U.S. Representative Steve Stivers.65

Oklahoma

Two-term Senator Tom Coburn was re-elected with 70.64% of the vote in 2010. Coburn is resigning in 2014. Coburn's retirement will trigger a special election; the winner of that special election will serve the remainder of Coburn's term and be the incumbent in this regular 2016 election.68 Former Congressman Dan Boren is viewed by some Oklahoma political operatives as the only Democrat who could make the race competitive, but is seen as unlikely to run.69

Oregon

Three-term Senator Ron Wyden was re-elected with 57.3% of the vote in 2010. He will be 67 years old in 2016.

Pennsylvania

One-term Senator Pat Toomey was elected with 51% of the vote in 2010. He will be 54 years old in 2016. Former Congressman Joe Sestak, the 2010 Democratic nominee, has formed an exploratory committee.11 Other potential Democratic candidates include U.S. Representative Matt Cartwright, Chairman of the Montgomery County Board of Commissioners Josh Shapiro, Pennsylvania Attorney General Kathleen Kane,70 U.S. Representative Allyson Schwartz, State Treasurer Rob McCord, and former Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection Secretary Katie McGinty.71

South Carolina

Two-term Senator Jim DeMint was re-elected with 61.48% of the vote in 2010. He resigned at the start of 2013, and Representative Tim Scott of South Carolina's 1st district was appointed to replace him by Governor Haley.72 A special election will be held in 2014 for the remaining two years of the term; the 2016 election will then be for a full six-year term. Scott is seen as the likely winner of the 2014 election, and may run as the incumbent in 2016, although he is also a potential Republican vice presidential nominee.7374 If Scott does not seek re-election, potential Republican candidates include Congressmen Mick Mulvaney,75 Jeff Duncan, and Mark Sanford, along with state senator Tom Davis, state Treasurer Curtis Loftis, and state Attorney General Alan Wilson.73 Darla Moore has also been mentioned as a potential candidate for either party.73

South Dakota

Two-term Senator John Thune ran unopposed and was re-elected with 100% in 2010. He will be 55 years old in 2016. Thune may run for president in 2016. Congresswoman Kristi Noem is a potential Republican candidate, while former Congresswoman Stephanie Herseth Sandlin and US Attorney Brendan Johnson are potential Democratic candidates.76

Utah

One-term Senator Mike Lee was elected with 61.6% of the vote in 2010. He will be 45 years old in 2016. Former Republican state party chair Thomas Wright, former State Senator Dan Liljenquist, Attorney General Sean Reyes, Lieutenant Governor Spencer Cox, state senator Aaron Osmond, state house speaker Becky Lockhart, Congressman Jason Chaffetz, Congressman Chris Stewart, and Mitt Romney's son Josh Romney may challenge Lee in the primary.777879 Congressman Jim Matheson is a potential Democratic candidate, although he may instead choose to run for governor.79

Vermont

Seven-term Senator Patrick Leahy was re-elected with 64.4% of the vote in 2010. He will be 76 years old in 2016.

Washington

Four-term Senator Patty Murray was re-elected with 52.15% of the vote in 2010. She will be 66 years old in 2016. Murray plans to seek re-election. Congressman Dave Reichert is a potential Republican candidate.8081

Wisconsin

One-term Senator Ron Johnson defeated three-term Senator Russ Feingold with 51.9% of the vote in 2010. He will be 61 years old in 2016. Polling by Public Policy Polling in February 2013 showed Johnson losing a re-match to Feingold, 52% to 42%.82

References

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